Sunday, May 23, 2010

Quick Post Game Reaction: Lakers vs. Suns Game 3

That's what it feels like. In case the Lakers' players and fans had forgotten the pain of a playoff loss, tonight was a good reminder. Before tonight's 118-109 loss in Phoenix, the Laker's hadn't dropped a game in nearly a month. Their last defeat was April 24th- Game 4 against the Oklahoma City Thunder. That loss, their second in a row, caused me to write a particularly scathing post game report, practically eulogizing the Lakers' season.

Tonight wasn't nearly as bad. After the OKC loss, I was inconsolable. I went for a long walk along the dark ocean cliffs, leaving some of my friends to worry, as I was gone for over an hour on that late night. I vented my frustration in the blog, wondering if the Lakers had the heart to repeat this year. Tonight's loss won't be chalked up to a lack of heart; tonight's deficiency was in the brain department.


These Things Happen in Threes

32 three pointers... Thirty-two! Almost 40% of the Lakers' field goal attempts tonight were from downtown. That's an absurd stat. They shot 12 more threes than the trigger happy Suns! And they weren't even making them. It's one thing to keep jacking up shots from long range if they're dropping, but to keep firing in the face of overwhelming bricks is brainless and inexcusable. Kobe was 2-8 from downtown, Artest and Brown were each 2-7 and Odom was 0-4. So the four of them combined to shoot 6 of 26 from deep.

The Lakers were either lazy, dumb, or the Phoenix zone really got to them. I think it's a bit of each. Obviously Phoenix's switch to the zone caught the Lakers off guard, and they had a harder time getting to the basket. But that's still no excuse to shoot so many three pointers. The lack of discipline was appalling. With their overwhelming size inside, the Lakers needed to find a way to pound the ball into the post. Their obsession with the three-pointer was particularly disastrous when the Lakers forced Phoenix into the penalty, midway through the fourth quarter. At that point, the ball should have been going to the post every single trip, knowing the worst that could happen would be freethrows. Instead we continued to watch as Artest and Odom missed open three-pointers.


Weekly Outlook: Cloudy, with little chance for the Sun[s]

One positive the Lakers can take from tonight's loss however, is that so many of the missed three-pointers were indeed wide open. In the second half, Phoenix came out determined to shut down Pau inside, and force Kobe and the rest of the perimeter players to beat them from deep, often at the risk of giving up good looks. These are shots the Lakers need to make, and usually do. Tonight though, they just weren't falling. While I'd hate to see the Lakers shoot more than 20 threes in Game 4, I can't imagine they'll shoot so poorly from long range again. The shots will fall. I think we can count on that.

Kobe had a good all around game, and Derek Fisher had one of his best games of the playoffs, but nobody else played particularly well. Pau had a great first quarter, but tapered off as the game went on. He didn't demand the ball, and the Lakers weren't looking for him. He only attempted one shot in the fourth quarter. The Lakers' bench was woeful. Their team defense was poor.

Meanwhile, while also getting nothing from their bench, the Sun's starters all starred. Amare Stoudemire was particularly stellar, abusing the Lakers for 42 points. His 18 freethrow attempts were only two less than the entire Laker team shot. Robin Lopez also had an otherworldly game, shooting 8 for 10 and finishing with 20 points.

While these things may all look like bad signs for the Lakers, I'll spin it the other way. There's no way any of that is going to happen again. Sideshow Bob is not going to shoot 80 percent from the field again. Amare won't score 42 again. The Lakers won't shoot so poorly from the three point line again. If I know anything about Phil Jackson, they certainly won't attempt anything close to 30 threes again.

Phoenix's zone was a nice stopgap. The Lakers didn't expect it, and it caught them off guard. It's hardly a long term solution though. There is a reason teams so rarely use zone defense in the NBA. It doesn't work. With time, good offensive teams can easily find a way to pick them apart. The Lakers will have a gameplan ready for Phoenix's zone on Tuesday night, we can be sure.

Tonight, nearly everything went wrong for L.A., and on the other side, everything went right for Phoenix. Game Threes often follow a similar pattern. Spurned on by their home crowd and essentially facing elimination [insert obligatory 'no team has ever come back from 3-0 down' remark here], Phoenix still barely won, even with all the balls bouncing their way. I expect things to balance out in Game 4. The Lakers will have a better attack plan for Phoenix's zone, Amare and Lopez will return to earth, and the wide open looks will start to drop for Ron and Lamar. If the purple and gold make a concerted effort to get the ball inside, and work a little harder on defense, they'll be fine.

Maybe the Lakers were just a little complacent. As mentioned earlier, they hadn't lost in 29 days! Maybe they forgot what it felt like. Well, now they remember... And it doesn't feel good. However, it was better for the Lakers to be woken up now, rather than in a a couple weeks, when they should be locked into an epic struggle with the Boston Celtics.

After the Lakers last loss, they responded by winning their next 6 games- two to close out Oklahoma and four to sweep Utah. I don't see why they can't respond similarly here, especially as this loss wasn't hugely demoralizing or indicative of bigger problems, like Game 4 of the Thunder series was.


Prediction:

While the Lakers were humbled a bit, the pundits suddenly proclaiming "We have a series now!" are sorely mistaken. The Lakers made a concerted effort to kill themselves tonight, Phoenix played out of their minds, and yet it was still anyone's game with a few minutes remaining. That, obviously, is not a good sign for the Suns. I like the Lakers to win easily in Game 4, and close it out with a tough Game 5, back in Los Angeles.



Thursday, May 6, 2010

Looking Ahead... Far Ahead

Thankfully, the Lakers didn't read my last post and decide to just go home and call it a season. In retrospect, the post may seem to be a slight overreaction- but I don't think that's fair. The Lakers hit rock bottom during that Game 4 loss to the Thunder. It was a humbling loss, and a served as reminder of all the problems the Lakers have. To their credit though, they answered the bell strongly in Game 5 and even more impressively in Game 6, proving that loss was indeed a wakeup call, not a death knell.

And now the Lakers have the Jazz exactly where they want them. Up 2-0, heading to Utah, the Lakers are in a much more comfortable position than perhaps the closeness of Games 1 and 2 would illustrate. EnergySolutions Arena is indeed a formidable place to play, but having played in front of the unbelievable fan support in Oklahoma City, it shouldn't surprise or rattle the Lakers. Even a split of the upcoming two games in Salt Lake City will give the Lakers a chance to clinch at home in Game 5. So if you'll forgive me, I'd like to look ahead a bit. There is another series going on right now that is arguably even more important for the Lakers than the one they're playing in.

No, I'm not talking about San Antonio vs. Phoenix. I'm looking even further ahead, and much farther East... Let me be blunt- the Lakers have no chance of beating the Cavilers in a seven game series this year. It won't happen. They don't matchup well with the Cavs at all, and proved exactly that twice this season already. They dropped both regular season matchups against the cavs-- wait, I can hear you interrupting me already: "but the Lakers lost both regular season games to the Magic last season, and look how that turned out!" Fair enough, but the Lakers had no idea the Magic would be their Finals opponents last year. They didn't know how good the Magic were, they didn't get "up" for the regular season matchups against them. Those games were just "regular games" to the Lakers. In contrast, the Lakers were extremely geared up for the two matchups against the Cavs this year. The dates were surely circled on schedules in El Segundo before the season even started. Everyone knew the best team in the West was LA, and everyone knew the best in the East was Cleveland. And the teams got hyped accordingly for those two clashes.

Surely all of us remember the debacle of their first matchup. The Cavs played Grinch and ruined Christmas for Angelenos, mopping the floor with our sorry Lakers. They got out to a big lead early, and coasted throughout the second half.

The Lakers had a chance to get revenge only a couple weeks later, in Cleveland. Sadly, this second matchup would end in one of the Lakers most frustrating defeats of the season. Kobe got caught up in his individually matchup with Lebron, and took way too many shots. Nobody else in purple stepped up offensively. The Lakers were in it until the end somehow, but completely combusted in crunch time. Their 'lack of clutch' was summed up by Pau Gasol's two missed freethrows, with the Lakers down only 2 and 25 seconds remaining. After the second miss, my TV remote (RIP) was introduced to the wall of my bedroom, putting on a great impression of a bug meeting a windshield. Who knew those things had so many pieces?

Even more than worrisome than the Lakers lack of execution down the stretch, was their complete inability to guard Lebron. While not terribly surprising- he's the least guardable player on the planet- it's obviously a huge problem for a potential finals matchup. Ron Artest, signed by the Lakers seemingly for the sole purpose of guarding Lebron, could hardly slow him. Lamar fared even worse. Kobe didn't even try. When Lebron brings up the ball in the open court, he's like a 6-8, 275 pound version of Russel Westbrook- who was already enough of a problem for the Lakers- except he's a better passer, can get to the basket at will, and has NBA referees eating out of the palm of his hand. When Lebron starts hitting his outside shots, he's literally unstoppable.

With the Cavs holding homecourt advantage through the Finals, the Lakers really don't have a chance of beating them. That's not pessimistic, it's just realistic. However, there is one a team that can beat the Cavs...





The Boston Celtics are old, banged up, and running on empty. Hardly anyone had them beating the Heat in round one; nobody had them beating Cleveland. But for whatever reason, they always give the Cavs trouble. Nobody on the Cleaveland can stop Rondo, and Garnett, Pierce and Allen have all stepped up their game. They've been able to contain Lebron. After stealing a game in Quicken Loans Arena (where nobody but the Cavs ever wins) the Celtics must really believe they can win the series. They were very close to being up 2-0, but couldn't hang on in Game 1. They've already done the hard part- winning a road game- now they just have to hold serve at home.

It pains me, and I'm mildly embarrassed to admit it, but I've been rooting hard for Boston. Now that they look like they can really win the series, I'll be doing everything but wearing a Celtics t-shirt. Every time I get the urge to cheer for the Celtics, I cringe. There's no team Laker fans hate more than Boston, and yet, I know I'm not alone in rooting for them in this series. A poll on the latimes.com showed 87% of Laker fans wanted Boston to win. I'm so emotionally confused, but I think I'm doing the right thing. It's obviously conflicting, but we all know one thing. We can't beat the Cavs. If we want to win the title this year, someone else is going to have to knock them off for us. The Magic have a chance to do it again, but it seems unlikely. If anyone is going to stop the juggernaut that is Lebron James, it's going to be Boston. Beating the Celtics or Magic in the finals won't be easy either, but it is possible. Beating the Cavs... Not so much.

So while I'm obviously looking forward to the Lakers' Game 3 on Saturday, I'm even more excited for a game Friday night, Game 3 of the Boston vs. Cleveland series . And as much as it pains me to say it, what the heck- Go Celtics!!! Now excuse me while I go throw up.