"Come Back Real Soon, You Hear?"

Was surely said by some Jazz fans to the disappointed Lakers players and fans after Game 4. Unfortunately, the Lakers will be returning to Utah soon, for a Game 6 few could have expected. After dominating the first two games in Los Angeles, many thought the Lakers would be able to sweep this series. The Lakers were supposed to leave Salt Lake after two easy wins, and return to L.A. with a week to rest before facing the winner of the San Antonio vs. New Orleans series. As it happened, the Lakers return to L.A. with 2 days to prepare for the biggest game of their season so far, a huge Game 5 against the Jazz, with the series firmly knotted at 2 to 2.

The Lakers now have to get back on the plane and regroup after what was a very disappointing long weekend. Throughout the whole season we have heard that Energy Solutions Arena is the hardest venue for opposing players in the NBA. It was proven this weekend. The Lakers are the better team, but Utah was bolstered by their rowdy fans and was able to play two nearly perfect games.

I wrote the Game 3 defeat off as Utah's emotional response to their crowd and being down 2-0. I still expected the Lakers to come out and essentially wrap up the series today, before returning to Staples Center to finish it in 5 games, as I predicted in the preceding post. It would seem that I underestimated the influence of Utah's crowd, and perhaps their team as a whole.

The Lakers came out flat in the first half, but were able to tighten up and send the game into the half tied. Unfortunately they completely fell apart in the third, and early fourth, periods. I didn't see anyway back for the Lakers, down 12 with three minutes to go, playing as badly as they were and with a gimpy MVP. Miraculously they were able to come back and send the game into overtime. Winning, however, was asking too much. For one reason or another, the Lakers continued to force the ball to Kobe who was injured and ice cold. Instead of feeding Lamar, who had been on fire in the end of regulation, or Pau or Fisher, both of whom had solid games, the Lakers were content to watch Kobe isolate for jumpers... and miss.

The Jazz deserved both wins, and now we have a series again. I still think the Lakers are the better team, and it is evidenced by the fact that were thoroughly outplayed in both games, and yet barely lost in both. Both games featured a perfect display by Utah, and a perfect storm suffered by the Lakers, and yet neither was over until the very end.

Prediction
The length of layoffs between games during the post season is sometimes annoying, for both players and fans, but the Lakers will be thrilled with the extra day off before Game 5. Kobe seemed to tweak his back early in the first quarter tonight, and will need all the time possible to fully recover. We'll have to see if the NBA suspends Ronny Turiaf after his ejection for a questionable "flagrant 2" foul, but that shouldn't have too much effect on Game 5 regardless.

I really cannot see the Lakers losing at home in a huge game 5, and I expect them to come out fired up and ready. Kobe, if fully healed, will be eager to prove he is better than he showed in Game 4. I fully expect the Lakers to win Game 5, and take a 3-2 lead. That said, it will be very difficult for the Lakers to go back to Utah and win against a Jazz team that will be backed into a corner. The Lakers won't need much to win it, but will need more than they got this weekend. I can't really see this series ending in anything less than 7 games. If it does go the distance, there is no way this Laker team loses a Game 7 at home to the Jazz.

Lakers in 7.

Round 2

After the Lakers handled their business against the Nuggets, they take the court today to open game one against the Utah Jazz. I predicted the Lakers vs. Denver series would go five games, but the Lakers were dominant and got their first sweep since the 2002 NBA finals over the New Jersey Nets. The Pau Gasol trade looks better and better every day, especially with the respective teams of the two other big trades- Phoenix (Shaq) and Dallas (Kidd) both losing big in the first round.

While some of the second round series have already begun, Detroit beat Orlando and New Orleans beat San Antonino, some of the first round has not ended yet, with Atlanta in Boston for a shocking Game 7 today.

ROUND 2 PREVIEW:

Lakers vs. Utah
This is the series most Laker fans expected, continuing the Lakers somewhat easy road to the finals. The Jazz are no pushover, and especially dangerous at home. Here are my five keys to the series:

#1- Game One
Game one always sets the tone for the series, but this one is especially important. The Lakers open this afternoon (12:30PT) in Staples Center, but haven't played since Monday. Phil Jackson pointed out that the last time the Lakers had so much rest they lost in Game 1 of the 2001 NBA finals to the 76ers, in what would become their only loss of that post-season.

This game is also important because of how good Utah is at home. The Lakers cannot afford to stumble and give up home court advantage. If the Lakers lose Game 1, I really believe they will be against the odds to come back and win the series. If they continue their great run of form from the Denver series, and embarrass Utah in Game 1, they will be off to a great start.

#2- The Battle of the Benches
Two of the best benches in the NBA will battle for supremacy. The Jazz have Matt Hapring (a do-it -all player), Paul Milsap (a big body), and Kyle Korver (one of the leagues best 3-point shooters) among others on their bench. The Lakers have Jordan Farmar (a runner up for 6th man of the year), Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton, Ronny Turiaf, DJ Mbenga and hopefully Trevor Ariza if healthy. Obviously Ariza and Turiaf are question marks. Ariza is getting a CT scan next Friday, and hopes to be ready to go after that. Turiaf was sick in the early games of the last series and reportedly lost 15 pounds, as well as his infectious enthusiasm and hustle. He'll need to regain those to be a spark of the bench.

#3- Who's the third option
The Lakers need a third option to emerge out of the shadow of Kobe and Pau. Lamar could be that guy, but sometimes struggles with consistency. He can play great one game, and hardly play in the next at all due to foul trouble, as we saw in the round one. Whether it's Fisher, Radmonovic, or Odom, the Lakers need someone to step up and be a consistent third option.

#4- Containing Boozer
I expect the Lakers to come at Boozer by platoon, with Odom, Turiaf, and Mbenga all covering him at different times. The matchup vs. Odom will be huge, and Lamar has to stay out of foul trouble. I also think Mbenga's imposing size will be effective off the bench.

#5- Deron Williams vs. Fisher
Along with Chris Paul, Williams has emerged as one of the top point guards in the NBA- of any age. He is capable of single handily stealing a game for the Jazz in this series. Fisher needs to keep him tired on defense by stretching the floor and knocking down jumpshots. Obviously Fisher will also be dealing with the sideplot of returning to Utah, and the fans disgraceful reaction to him. How he handles this will be important to this matchup and the series.

As with the Boozer matchup, the Lakers will probably look to throw multiple players at Williams. I expect both Farmar (quicker and an offensive threat) as well as Vujacic (a feisty, gnat-like defender) to spend significant times on Williams.



I still think Game 1 is the biggest key- if the Lakers can get that, they should win this series somewhat easily- if they lose, it's going to be a long series. Utah is going to come out strong on their homecourt, they have had one of the NBA's best home records all year. But I think the Lakers can steal one in Salt Lake.

Prediction- Lakers in 5


Other predictions-

Detroit over Orlando in 5

Celtics (assuming they handle their business against the Hawks in game 7) over the Lebrons in 6

San Antonio over New Orleans in 7