Round 2

After the Lakers handled their business against the Nuggets, they take the court today to open game one against the Utah Jazz. I predicted the Lakers vs. Denver series would go five games, but the Lakers were dominant and got their first sweep since the 2002 NBA finals over the New Jersey Nets. The Pau Gasol trade looks better and better every day, especially with the respective teams of the two other big trades- Phoenix (Shaq) and Dallas (Kidd) both losing big in the first round.

While some of the second round series have already begun, Detroit beat Orlando and New Orleans beat San Antonino, some of the first round has not ended yet, with Atlanta in Boston for a shocking Game 7 today.

ROUND 2 PREVIEW:

Lakers vs. Utah
This is the series most Laker fans expected, continuing the Lakers somewhat easy road to the finals. The Jazz are no pushover, and especially dangerous at home. Here are my five keys to the series:

#1- Game One
Game one always sets the tone for the series, but this one is especially important. The Lakers open this afternoon (12:30PT) in Staples Center, but haven't played since Monday. Phil Jackson pointed out that the last time the Lakers had so much rest they lost in Game 1 of the 2001 NBA finals to the 76ers, in what would become their only loss of that post-season.

This game is also important because of how good Utah is at home. The Lakers cannot afford to stumble and give up home court advantage. If the Lakers lose Game 1, I really believe they will be against the odds to come back and win the series. If they continue their great run of form from the Denver series, and embarrass Utah in Game 1, they will be off to a great start.

#2- The Battle of the Benches
Two of the best benches in the NBA will battle for supremacy. The Jazz have Matt Hapring (a do-it -all player), Paul Milsap (a big body), and Kyle Korver (one of the leagues best 3-point shooters) among others on their bench. The Lakers have Jordan Farmar (a runner up for 6th man of the year), Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton, Ronny Turiaf, DJ Mbenga and hopefully Trevor Ariza if healthy. Obviously Ariza and Turiaf are question marks. Ariza is getting a CT scan next Friday, and hopes to be ready to go after that. Turiaf was sick in the early games of the last series and reportedly lost 15 pounds, as well as his infectious enthusiasm and hustle. He'll need to regain those to be a spark of the bench.

#3- Who's the third option
The Lakers need a third option to emerge out of the shadow of Kobe and Pau. Lamar could be that guy, but sometimes struggles with consistency. He can play great one game, and hardly play in the next at all due to foul trouble, as we saw in the round one. Whether it's Fisher, Radmonovic, or Odom, the Lakers need someone to step up and be a consistent third option.

#4- Containing Boozer
I expect the Lakers to come at Boozer by platoon, with Odom, Turiaf, and Mbenga all covering him at different times. The matchup vs. Odom will be huge, and Lamar has to stay out of foul trouble. I also think Mbenga's imposing size will be effective off the bench.

#5- Deron Williams vs. Fisher
Along with Chris Paul, Williams has emerged as one of the top point guards in the NBA- of any age. He is capable of single handily stealing a game for the Jazz in this series. Fisher needs to keep him tired on defense by stretching the floor and knocking down jumpshots. Obviously Fisher will also be dealing with the sideplot of returning to Utah, and the fans disgraceful reaction to him. How he handles this will be important to this matchup and the series.

As with the Boozer matchup, the Lakers will probably look to throw multiple players at Williams. I expect both Farmar (quicker and an offensive threat) as well as Vujacic (a feisty, gnat-like defender) to spend significant times on Williams.



I still think Game 1 is the biggest key- if the Lakers can get that, they should win this series somewhat easily- if they lose, it's going to be a long series. Utah is going to come out strong on their homecourt, they have had one of the NBA's best home records all year. But I think the Lakers can steal one in Salt Lake.

Prediction- Lakers in 5


Other predictions-

Detroit over Orlando in 5

Celtics (assuming they handle their business against the Hawks in game 7) over the Lebrons in 6

San Antonio over New Orleans in 7