Although the focus for some may be on tonight's huge, meaningful, implication packed, epic clash vs. the Clippers, some of us (okay, everyone, Phil included) are looking ahead to this weekend. With the Lakers clinching the one seed, and the Durants (ahem, Oklahoma City Thunder) locked into the eight spot, the first round matchup is set.
There were many schools of thought as to what team would be the most favorable opponent for the Lakers in the first round. With three teams realistically in play for the eight seed- Spurs, Blazers and OKC- three distinct camps emerged among Laker fans. Some wanted San Antonio, believing the Spurs to be old, tired and vulnerable. Some thought the young, playoff inexperienced, Thunder would be heavily overmatched against the Lakers. And... well actually, there were just two camps. Nobody wanted to face Portland.
I, admittedly, was in the "San Antonio is vulnerable" camp. The Spurs have a wealth of post-season experience, savvy veterans and way too much pride to just roll over. But I think the Lakers know what to expect from them, and matchup well against San Antonio. It wouldn't have been easy, but I don't see anyway the Lakers would drop 4 games in that series.
The Oklahoma City Thunder is a much scarier match up, because there is so much unknown. They are- as many have pointed out- the youngest team in the NBA. No, not just in the playoffs, in the whole league. They have five guys who are younger than me! I'm 21... Their roster looks more like a college team than an NBA Team. They have no playoff experience. But are they inexperienced and "in over their heads" or are they "too young to know any better"? The, latter, I fear, may be closer to the truth. They haven't been in the playoffs before, so they don't really know what its like. But is that a bad thing? I doubt they are scared by the Lakers, and why should they be? Bound to be the looser of the two teams, the Thunder really have nothing to lose. A loss in the first round against the defending champs would hardly be a devastating end to the season. For L.A., anything less than a title, even a hard fought loss in the Finals, would be deeply disappointing. A loss in the first round would be catastrophically cataclysmic. All of the pressure is on the Lakers.
The Thunder also have this guy named Kevin Durant. You may have heard of him. He's quite good. Durant has emerged as one of the top 7 or 8 players in the NBA this year. I've been a huge fan of him since his days at Texas, and have been proclaiming for years, to anyone that would listen, that he would soon be in the argument for best player in the NBA (the Kobe, Lebron, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo group). I have been ridiculed less and less as the years have gone by, and have been somewhat vindicated this season, as Durant has enjoyed a breakout year. He has all but won the scoring title (Lebron would need to outscore him by 33 points tonight to win it) and will likely finish second in MVP voting.
He's an outstanding offensive talent. What makes Durant so special is his uniqueness- he's listed as 6'9" and has an freakishly long wingspan and reach. Yet he rarely plays in the post, preferring to beat his men off the dribble, or put up perimeter shots. He has literally unlimited shooting range. This season, his focus on getting to the basket (and through that, the freethrow line) has enabled him to make the leap from from phenom to superstar.
So who guards Durant? He's hard to double, because he sets up so far away from the basket, and the Thunder have surrounded him with complimentary shooters. Artest, likely will be the Laker's primary "Durant-stopper", and will look to use his strength and size to bother the slight Durant. But Ron has lost a step on the perimeter, and will probably get beat by the quicker Durant often. The key to stopping him will lie with the Lakers' team defense, which will have to provide ample help, switching and shifting often.
Besides Durant, the key to this series is the health of Bynum. I believe that Kobe is fine, and really is just resting up for the "second season". As for Andrew, I'm not so sure. His lingering injury, continually pushed back return date, and contradictory statements from the front office reminds me of Kevin Garnett's knee injury last season. Bynum claims he'll be back for the opening game vs. the Thunder, and I hope he's right. With Bynum, most of the above talk about the Thunder's threats are irrelevant. Bynum, while not necessarily the key player himself, changes the entire equation. He makes the Lakers almost impossible to deal with, because of their ridiculous height and size advantages over everyone else. Lamar Odom is pushed back to 6th man, making the bench a strength, not a vulnerability. Pau gets shifted to power foward, where he is more effective, and able to guard/be guarded by smaller players. With Bynum, the Lakers are the most talented top to bottom team in the league. Without Bynum, they're vulnerable, even against the Thunder.
The Lakers beat the Thunder three times in November and December, with Kobe averaging 33 points per contest. With Bynum injured though, the Thunder blew out the Lakers more recently, on March 26th. It was a signature win for the Thunder, who were starting to prove that they could beat good teams, and not just pad their record with wins against non-contenders.
It's pretty hard to make a pick for this series without really knowing the health of Bynum, and to a lesser degree, Kobe. But I'll take the optimistic point of view. With Bynum and Kobe both rested and healthy, and the Lakers finally focused and considering every game important, they should be able to win easily. Alot of people, myself included- have been pointing out all the reasons the Thunder should give the Lakers trouble. But what else are we supposed to do? We've had almost a week to dwell on the matchup. We have started to talk ourselves into thinking the Thunder have a chance, because it's more interesting than talking about how much better the Lakers are.
In reality, barring a dramatic injury to Kobe (I cringed even typing that), there can only be one winner in this series. The Lakers are much more talented at nearly every position and the bench. They have a ludicrously huge edge in experience. The same could be said for coaching as well. While Scott Brooks has been mentioned as a Coach of The Year candidate, he, like his team, is young, inexperienced (first year head coach), and has not been to the playoffs. Phil Jackson, on the other hand, has been to the playoffs a few times.
I'd love to pick the Lakers to sweep. It'd be a bold and noteworthy prediction, but I just can't do it. Not because they aren't talented enough to sweep, but because I don't believe they think they 'need' to sweep. The Lakers' focus is a major question mark, and arguably the real key to the series. They have been maddeningly inconsistent the last few weeks, following up great efforts with no-shows, the aforementioned debacle on March 26th vs. the Thunder especially conspicuous. Can they string together four hard-fought, complete games? If so, this series will end very quickly. If they want to be remembered as a great team, they should certainly be able to focus for 16 quarters, without a let down. But every Laker fan knows there's about as much chance of that as there is of the Clippers getting Lebron this summer. Almost none. Sorry to pile on, Clipper fans. At least you got rid of Dunleavy.
Even though its the playoffs, and the focus should be there, I'm not so sure. I don't think the Lakers fear the Thunder enough. I don't think they're hungry enough. Do they really want it badly enough to dive for loose balls, to work every quarter, to focus through two road games in OKC, to get that a sweep? Or do they think (correctly, but sadly) that they're good enough to win without too much exertion? 'Isn't simply winning the series good enough?' is attitude I anticipate. Teams have to want to sweep, and I'm not sure the Lakers do. I'll afford them one disinterested loss in my prediction, and I think a few of the games might be close as well. But the Lakers have too much talent to drop multiple games, and I'll go with Lakers in 5.
3 comments:
Yea, I think the Lakers have this in 5. Would be a HUGE surprise if they dropped both road games.
In my opinion you are not right. I suggest it to discuss. Write to me in PM, we will talk.
JUST AWESOME!!!!!!Gr888 Job…
Post a Comment